Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://cris.library.msu.ac.zw//handle/11408/6546
Title: Age- and sex- specific incidence rates and future projections for hip fractures in Zimbabwe
Authors: Hannah Wilson
Tadios Manyanga
Anya Burton
Prudance Mushayavanhu
Joseph Chipanga
Samuel Hawley
Kate A Ward
Simon Graham
James Masters
Tsitsi Bandason
Matthew L Costa
Munyaradzi Ndekwere
Rashida A Ferrand
Celia L Gregson
University of Bristol Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Bristol, Bristol, UK hannah.wilson@bristol.ac.uk.
The Health Research Unit Zimbabwe at the Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe
University of Bristol Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Bristol, Bristol, UK
Department of Surgery, Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Harare, Zimbabwe; Department of Surgery, Midlands State University, Gweru, Zimbabwe.
The Health Research Unit Zimbabwe at the Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe
University of Bristol Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Bristol, Bristol, UK
MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, Human Development and Health, Southampton, UK; MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, Gambia
Oxford Trauma and Emergency Care, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Oxford Trauma and Emergency Care, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
The Health Research Unit Zimbabwe at the Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe
Oxford Trauma and Emergency Care, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Department of Surgery, Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Harare, Zimbabwe
University of Bristol Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Bristol, Bristol, UK; Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
University of Bristol Musculoskeletal Research Unit, Bristol, Bristol, UK
Keywords: Cohort study
Epidemiology
Global Health
Public Health
Issue Date: 27-Jan-2025
Publisher: BMJ Publishing Group
Abstract: Introduction Population ageing in Africa is increasing healthcare demands. Hip fractures require multidisciplinary care and are considered an indicator condition for age- related health services. We aimed to estimate current hip fracture incidence in Zimbabwe, compare rates against other regional estimates and estimate future fracture numbers. Methods All hip fracture cases in adults aged ≥40 years, presenting to any hospital in Harare over 2 years, were identified. From this, age- and sex- specific hip fracture incidence rates per 100 000 person- years were estimated using 2022 Zimbabwean Census data and compared with South African and Botswanan estimates. Furthermore, using the United Nations population projections, future hip fracture numbers were estimated to 2052 for Zimbabwe. Results In 2022, 1 83 312 women and 1 79 212 men aged ≥40 years were living in Harare (14.9% of the city’s population). Over 2 years 243 hip fracture cases, 133 (54.7%) female, mean (SD) age 71.2 (15.9) years, were identified. Most presented to public hospitals (202 [83.1%]) and were fragility hip fractures (211 [86.8%]); high- impact trauma (eg, traffic accidents) was more common in younger men. Presentation delays of >2 weeks were common (37.4%). Incidence rates for adults aged ≥40 years in Harare (observed) and Zimbabwe (estimated) were 33.5 and 53.8/100 000 person- years, respectively. Over age 50, rates increased with age, with the highest rates seen in women aged ≥85 years (704/100 000 person- years). Age- standardised hip fracture incidence rates are broadly comparable between Zimbabwe, Botswana and Black South Africans in those aged 40–69 years; thereafter, rates in Zimbabwean women and men exceed those in Botswana and South Africa. Across Zimbabwe, the number of hip fractures occurring annually is expected to increase more than 2.5- fold from 1709 in 2022 to 4414 by 2052. Conclusion In Zimbabwe, most hip fractures in adults ≥50 years are fragility fractures, consistent with age- associated osteoporosis; incidence rates exceed those previously reported regionally. Demands on already challenged healthcare systems will increase.
URI: https://cris.library.msu.ac.zw//handle/11408/6546
Appears in Collections:Research Papers

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